Stocks Rise as Oil Falls Ahead of Midterms

Wall Street bounces back to start November

U.S. stocks rose on Monday, November 2, as a sharp drop in oil prices lifted investor mood after a rough stretch for the market. As of 1:38 p.m. ET, the S&P 500 was up about 0.3% at 7,603.38, after climbing as much as 1% in the morning before tech stocks gave back some ground.

Index

Level (1:38 p.m. ET)

Change today

S&P 500

7,603.38

+0.3%

Dow Jones Industrial Average

52,276.74

+0.98%

Nasdaq Composite

25,497.87

+0.24%

Russell 2000

2,828.78

+0.60%

The gains come after the S&P 500 posted its third straight losing week. The index is still down about 1.25% over the past five days and sits roughly 3% below its record high of 7,844.52, set on October 6.

Oil tumbles on Iran peace hopes

The biggest driver was oil. Crude prices fell more than 7% after reports that Iranian and Qatari officials were discussing a proposal to end the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. U.S. benchmark WTI crude slid back below $100 a barrel to around $96.72, while Brent dropped to about $104.82. It was oil's steepest one-day fall since late July.

Lower oil prices helped airlines and consumer stocks, while energy companies lagged. The energy sector fell about 3%, with ExxonMobil among the decliners.

Other big movers:

  • Amazon rose more than 4% as investors reassessed its record cloud growth.

  • Oracle fell about 6% after announcing a $20 billion fundraising.

  • Marvell agreed to buy Lumentum, adding to a busy day for chip stocks.

Tech remained the weak spot. Several large technology names slipped again in the afternoon, trimming the S&P 500's early gains, while consumer, industrial and financial stocks held up better.

A market shifting away from big tech

Monday's pattern fits a broader trend. In October, the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index, which gives every company the same weight, returned about 5.7%, while the standard market-cap-weighted S&P 500 slipped about 1%. Seeking Alpha reported it was the equal-weight index's biggest monthly outperformance since 2009.

In other words, the average stock has been doing well even as the largest tech companies struggle. Investors have grown more uneasy about the huge sums being spent on artificial intelligence, and last week's selling in tech and AI-related stocks pushed the Nasdaq down about 2%.

The S&P 500's trading range has also been unusually tight. Over the past three months it has moved within a band of roughly 3.5%, far narrower than usual.

Some strategists remain upbeat. Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson has projected the S&P 500 could reach 8,500, about 12% above current levels.

A busy week ahead

Investors have plenty to watch in the days ahead:

  • Tuesday, November 3: Midterm elections. Historically, the S&P 500 has tended to rise in the six to twelve months after midterms, though past patterns are no guarantee.

  • Apple earnings headline another week of big tech results, a key test after last week's tech selloff.

  • Friday, November 6: U.S. jobs report, a fresh read on the labor market.

  • Oil and Iran. Any progress, or setback, in diplomatic talks could move oil prices and stocks quickly.

With the market close at 4 p.m. ET, Monday's final numbers may differ from the midday figures above.

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